We are near the midway point in the English Premier League season and for the first time in years, there is legitimate and enthralling competition for at least one of the Champions League places. It is not unusual for surprise teams to challenge for a spot in August, September and occasionally, October, but by November, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool take their places in the top four and that is that. Here were are in December of 2009 though and there is not only drama on the table as multiple battle for the prestige (and money) of the Champions League, but there is drama at a number of those clubs in contention as well.
Manchester United and Chelsea have separated themselves by a modest margin in points, but more than anything, they have passed the eyeball test as England’s two best teams. After that though, there is plenty to debate.
Arsenal holds the third position over Aston Villa thanks to goal differential, an astonishing +24 for a team with only seven more wins than losses, but Arsenal also has a match in hand. They have an interesting decision to make in January though as Arsene Wenger may be forced to spend some money to bring in a replacement for Robin van Persie, whose return at any point this season could be in question. The Gunners are currently stocked with a plethora of smaller, skillful players who can all excel in the beautiful, attacking style that Wenger prefers, but their lack of muscle was painfully exposed when Chelsea disposed of them 3-0 at the Emirates. Arsenal’s smaller players are also susceptible to injury and the Gunners do not have the depth to withstand many more.
Aston Villa, the club that spent the longest time threatening the top four last season, sits a spot behind Arsenal in the final Champions League spot at the moment. Villa are often discussed in attacking terms because of Gabriel Agbonlahor, Stewart Downing, John Carew, Emile Heskey and Ashley Young, but it is the defense that has them surging. No team has surrendered fewer goals than the Villans to this point in the season as Richard Dunne has settled in nicely to give Villa a staunch defense in front of iron man goalkeeper Brad Friedel. It’s worth noting that no team this decade that has finished in the top two in goals allowed has not finished in the top four.
The sometimes beautiful and sometimes defenseless Spurs currently hold the fifth spot in the table, two points behind Villa, as they’ve excelled despite playing without their anticipated talisman, Luka Modric. The Croatian was expected to lead the Tottenham attack, but a broken leg put him in the dugout just five matches into the season. However, Jermain Defoe and Aaron Lennon, both campaigning for a spot on the English squad in South Africa, have more than picked up the slack.
No Premier League player has more goals than Defoe, while Lennon is second in the Premier League with eight assists. Sebastien Bassong has given the defense some stability as Ledley King battles through his chronic knee problems and Niko Kranjcar may have been the best signing in all of England, coming over for just £2.5 million. Harry Redknapp is now faced with the difficult, but enviable situation of inserting the healthy Modric into a midfield playing exquisitely, but Spurs history of schizophrenic play still persists.
Manchester City is the club dominating headlines with Mark Hughes’ sacking and his dismissal can be easily justified with the money he had at his disposal, but City still sits just six points away from the fourth place spot with a match in hand. With an abundance of attacking talent, a good run of form could be in the cards for the Citizens under Roberto Mancini, but it will only come with improved defense.
Joleon Lescott’s play has been underwhelming to say the least and it is hard not to laugh when you consider that it cost City £22 million to get him, while Richard Dunne has anchored the Aston Villa defense after City sold him for a mere £6 million. A defense buy must be in the cards for the Citizens, who have allowed more goals than any Champions League contender, although it must be a better one than Lescott, who is out with injury, has been.
The club who is usually comfortably amongst the top four looks to have the longest way to go among contenders as Liverpool looks to some consistency. Not since September have the Reds won consecutive Premier League matches and there is obvious discontent at Anfield. Liverpool may be in the most perilous of situations because not only are they sorely lacking in quality, but Rafa Benitez is unlikely to have the funds to make any improvements in January.
Glenn Johnson’s defending has been worse than advertised and Xabi Alonso has not been adequately replaced. Alberto Aquilani has struggled to find health and his form will likely determine ‘Pools fate. Add in higher expectations of the club thanks to a history of success and the Reds will have more pressure on them than any team in the Champions League muck. Might it be best for Benitez to step aside, squashing some of the drama surrounding the club and giving him a chance to Spain?
Two clubs who must be included because the table dictates it, but who don’t quite meet the eyeball test like the others are Birmingham and Fulham, Each hold a match in hand over Liverpool, Spurs and Villa, while Birmingham is tied on points with Liverpool and Fulham sits a point back.
The Blues have been the surprise of the league with an incredible run of form that hasn’t seen them lose since mid-October because of an organized defense, but they have only scored 18 times, a paltry number. By comparison, the other Champions League contenders have scored 29 (Aston Villa), 33 (Manchester City), 34 (Liverpool), 40 (Tottenham) and 44 (Arsenal). Goal scoring is an area where the Cottagers are struggling as well, but not to the degree Birmingham is. Fulham’s 23 goals are still below par, but like Birmingham, they have only surrendered 17. Bobby Zamora’s recent goal scoring binge is a good sign, as is Damien Duff’s good play, but the rosters, play and available January funds of both Birmingham and Fulham pale in comparison to those they are battling with.
So who is it that earns the coveted Champions League places? Arsenal is the best bet to finish third because while they cannot compete with the top two, they are a class above those below them. Their possession and stellar home record should be enough to secure yet another Champions League berth. Liverpool is in the discussion on pedigree alone and nobody who has watched would call the Reds anything approaching European quality. Their losses to Spurs, Villa, Arsenal and Fulham with only one win over a top half club only extenuates that point. City is a tough club to predict because of their recent manager change, but they appear to be somewhat dependent on January transfers at the back and January transfers have a high failure rate.
Aston Villa and Tottenham are most likely to be the candidates to earn a chance at European glory. Spurs have a higher ceiling than Villa, having played so much without Modric and their depth in the midfield, as well as up top with Defoe, Robbie Keane and Peter Crouch. They will be hurt at the back though when Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Bassong leave for the African Cup of Nations and the Lilywhites defense is a patchwork affair as is. Meanwhile, Villa has a tremendous defense and will not lose a single core player to national team duty. Because they will remain essentially intact, while Spurs will have holes to fill and because a strong defense is more consistent than a strong attack, Aston Villa appears to be the club most likely to break the top four and have a go in Europe.
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